What kind of financial and economic information do you use in planning your investments? Is it unique or simply more of the same? How much of the information you get simply follows the consensus? How profitable has relying on the herd in recent years been to you? We think it's time for a new voice, one that is fiercely independent.
We think that voice is respected columnist, economist and stock market forecaster Gary Shilling. Early last year, in his monthly Insight newsletter, editor and Forbes magazine columnist Gary Shilling laid out 12 investment themes for 2007. You can review them below. A number of those themes, led by the expected collapse in the housing bubble, were well-timed. While others have yet to unfold, Gary feels these themes remain valid. One thing these themes are not are just a rehash of what most Wall Street analysts, economic forecasters and other cheerleaders have been saying. All 12 are contrarian to the core and, therefore, could help you reap significant financial rewards when the Wall Street and other investors are caught off-guard.
1. The housing bubble has burst.
2. The Fed will ease; meanwhile, the yield curve will remain flat or inverted
3. U.S. stock prices will fall, perhaps below the 2002 lows, in the midst of a major recession
4. China will suffer a hard landing due to domestic cooling measures and U.S. recession
5. Weakness in the U.S. and China will spread globally, dragging down economies and stocks worldwide
6. Treasury bonds will rally
7. The dollar will rally, but not before the recession is global
8. Commodity prices will nosedive
9. Maybe global and chronic deflation will commence in
10. Maybe U.S. consumers will start a long-run saving spree, replacing their 25-year borrowing and spending binge
11. Maybe deflationary expectations will become widespread and robust
12. Speculative areas beyond housing may suffer in 2008.
Now, Gary Shilling has released 13 New Recommendations for thriving during the market melt-down. We call it his "Bear Market Tool Kit." You can access his recommendations when you subscribe to Gary Shilling's Insight.
Are the brokers and television analysts who constantly parrot the "conventional wisdom" paying serious attention to any of Shilling's predictions? Probably not. Gary looks for hidden investment opportunities, which often means going against the conventional wisdom. And when you learn more about Gary's credentials and his track record, you will realize that everyone who doesn't pay attention to what he says might end up with some serious egg on their faces.
Gary has twice been ranked as Wall Street's top economist by polls in Institutional Investor; he was also named the country's number one Commodity Trader Advisor by Futures magazine. And in 2003, MoneySense ranked him as the 3rd best stock market forecaster, right behind Warren Buffett. He also challenges the consensus in appearances on CNBC.
Gary also has a long-standing reputation for independent thought...and for getting it right. Back in 1969, he correctly predicted, to the surprise of many, the 1969-1970 recession. In the early 1970s, he stood alone in predicting the severe 1973-1975 global recession. In the late 1970s, when double-digit inflation was raging, Gary was nearly unique in forecasting dwindling inflation rates as well as the wonderful stock and bond markets that lay ahead.
Gary has been running away from the herd for years, and he's been nearly alone in making some early, and accurate, calls:
•In early 1999, in the midst of the Internet stock boom, Gary Shilling was nearly alone in warning of a collapse in tech stocks. In January 2000, with stocks still strong, Gary Shilling said a major bear market was at hand. In November 2000, he foresaw total declines of 30%-40% in the Dow Industrials, 40%-50% in the S&P 500 and 70%-80% in the Nasdaq—right on target with the overall decline of 35% in the Dow, 49% in the S&P and 78% in the Nasdaq.
•Unlike the near-unanimous consensus forecast, Gary Shilling correctly predicted that Treasury bond yields would decline in 2004.
•Gary has pointed out to Insight readers that despite investors' affection for stocks in the 1980s and 1990s, bonds, especially zero-coupon Treasuries, far outperformed stocks—throughout the long 18-year bull market of 1982-2000 and during the 2000-2002 bear market.
•He has been nearly alone for years in seeing increasing signs of mild, good deflation driven by new tech-inspired productivity advances and excess supply, not the 1930s-style bad deflation of deficient demand that scares the Fed and the few others who also foresee deflation.
•Last year, as oil prices skyrocketed and many feared a return to 1970s-style inflation, Gary noted that energy is less important to the economy than in past oil shocks and, as a result, an inflationary surge was unlikely, especially in a highly competitive global world.
Wouldn't you have benefited from such insights? Gary Shilling's Insight readers were not only well-prepared when the bad news began to unfold, but were also equipped to make money while others suffered.
Each month's information-packed issue of Gary Shilling's Insight contains:
•In-depth analyses of current economic, political and financial trends and how they affect the investment world.
•A look at our specific investment themes that are derived from our overview, like our positive views on healthcare productivity enhancers, Treasury bonds, dividend-paying stocks and the dollar as well as our negative stances on consumer discretionary spending, subprime lenders and conventional homebuilders.
•Charts, graphs and data on all of the relevant indicators.
•Gary's famous back page Commentary on matters great and small, complex and mundane, serious and frivolous.
Gary Shilling's Insight is not a "tip sheet." We don't guarantee 1000% returns. We provide a serious and sober examination of macro forces such as Fed policy, global competition in goods and services, and U.S. consumer attitudes—and their effects on the U.S. and foreign economies and financial markets.
With Gary Shilling's Insight, you'll be able to understand how these forces affect your investment decisions. We bring you independent, informed, carefully-researched economic analysis and investment advice—not just more of the same old melodies from the chorus of the consensus or perennially bullish and perennially biased Wall Street analysts.
Your satisfaction is 100% guaranteed. If you're not happy with your subscription for any reason, just cancel and receive a refund on the balance of your subscription term.* No questions asked.
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